A cartoon
A thought
I am starting a new intermittent series today - things I am 100% certain about!1 I hope it will be a fun way to communicate my worldview, values and my take on our meta-crisis predicament.
So to kick off, #1, I am 100% certain that GDP growth is the stupidest measure to organise our economy and society around moving forward.
The idea of perpetual exponential growth is unnatural. It cannot be observed anywhere in the natural world. Microorganisms in a petri dish will increase exponentially, but only until an essential nutrient is exhausted.
Exponential growth in nature is always a self-limiting event.
I’ve just finished reading “The Crash Course: An Honest Approach to Facing the Future of our Economy, Energy and the Environment” Revised Edition by
. It is a very useful read, breaking down our current system and assessing it for how it is and isn’t serving us (spoiler alert, it is mostly NOT serving most of us).For me, the book’s most impactful part was understanding what exponential growth is and how our weird little human brains just don’t get it. My key takeaways are listed below, all examples are from Chris’s book.
Humans are good at thinking in straight lines. For example, ”Suppose I gave you two chalkboard erasers and asked you to hold them at arms length, then move them together at a constant (linear) rate of speed. You would do pretty well with this task… Now let’s repeat the same experiment but this time we will replace the erasers with two powerful magnets. As you move them together, the first part of the journey will progress in a nice constant fashion… but at a certain point - BANG!- the magnets will suddenly draw themselves together and wreck your deliberately even speed. In the magnets, the force of attraction increases exponentially as they get closer.”
The lesson here is that at the rising end of an exponential curve, CHANGE HAPPENS FAST and with a momentum of its own. Hello 2024!
Getting my head around doublings as a way of understanding the speed and scale of exponentially also blew my weird little brain. I’ll ask L’il Bean to help explain:
This is the legend of the mathematician who invented the game of chess for a king (incidentally, probably about 1500 years ago in India). So pleased was the king with this invention that he asked the mathematician to name his reward. The mathematician made a request that seemed modest: to be given a single grain of rice on the first square of the board, two grains for the second square, four grains for the third square and so on. The king agreed to this deal, but his weird little human brain failed to appreciate exponentiality. After 64 doublings (the number of squares on a chess board) had committed to 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 grains of rice - I didn’t even know how to read a number that big - I had to Google it - nine quintillion, two hundred twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred fifty -our million, seven hundred eighty thousand grains of rice - needless to say, more than 750 times the global rice harvest in 2009.
Okay, L’il Bean, that all sounds a bit mad. We are talking about doubling—no economist talks about doubling the economy every year. Ha! That is again, where our weird human brains don’t get it. Anything growing by some percentage over time is growing exponentially because any future growth is itself based off all past growth. That is, the growth compounds upon itself.
10% annual growth equals a doubling in 7 years.
5% annual growth equals a doubling in 14 years.
2% annual growth equals a doubling in 36 years.
In a real-life example, China’s electricity use grew at a rate of 10.9% per year between 2004 and 2018. Oh, just 10.9% that doesn’t sound so bad. If we convert it to a doubling rate, we find that China is doubling the amount of electricity it uses every 6.4 years. Before too many such doublings, China would require the entire world’s supply of energy. That obviously can’t happen - we will hit a limit and that level of expansion of demand for electricity will stop one way or another, peaceably or otherwise.
Our economy, our money system and all our associated institutions are predicated on exponential growth. The simple maths of exponentially aside, GDP as a measure does not account for domestic labour, caring, safety, work-life balance, life satisfaction, pollution, biodiversity, planetary boundaries or ecosystem health. All of those things which make life on this blue-green globe worth living. That is why I say GDP is stupid - why have we coupled all our systems and institutions to a measure that does not count all the things we value most?
To ensure a just and safe (within planetary boundaries) future, we need to ditch GDP growth as a primary measure and reimagine the economic system. Luckily, there are brave and renegade economists doing just that! As I explore those ideas, I will share them with you!
Tiny actions
If your brain is intrigued by this post, then get yourself a copy of “The Crash Course: An Honest Approach to Facing the Future of our Economy, Energy and the Environment” Revised Edition. It has helped me make sense of how we ended up here, and has significantly influenced how I will make financial decisions moving forward.
If this is all a foreign language to you, then I recommend Kate Raworths’ Book “Doughnut Economics” - is a bit more entertaining but covers similar ideas, as well as what alternate models could look like. Homer Simpson would be so pleased - the future is doughnut-shaped!
Glimmers and sparks*
My glimmers for today are:
The first frosts = sparkly crisp mornings.
Seeing swamp wallabies disappearing through the fog in the morning. They have a lovely, smooth flow to the way they move, unlike the erratic, jumpy energy of a kangaroo.
Sitting beside the lake in Canberra as I post this - watching the quiet sparkle of the water is always a glimmer.
Li’l bean is your reminder to pause and ask: What are your glimmers for today?
From your friend and your small, steadfast companion,
*Drawing Li’l Bean helped me navigate out of a period of depression in 2023. A good friend 13, 595km away, helped, too, through a ritual of swapping daily glimmers via text.
A glimmer is a tiny spark of hope, enthusiasm or joy that lifts your heart. By helping me find three glimmers each day, she gently helped me see the joy and beauty already around me.
I’d like to share this practice with you and invite you to reflect on your glimmers for the day when you read this. Think of Li’l Bean as a reminder to notice the glimmers and sparks in your life. We’d love it if you would like to share your glimmers in the comments.
I was inspired by the Nate Hagens episode The 17 things of which I an 100% Certain.
So MUCH love for this post Gillian! Go you!! Thanks for doing your work & being who you are! xos
Thank you, Gillian. I love receiving your posts in my email! It’s definitely one of my glimmers. Other glimmers today: going to yoga after a 2 month hiatus and reconnecting with my yoga buddies; the quiet and stillness that comes with rain. x